The Indian airline system now has two principal players – Air India Group and IndiGo – accounting for close to 80% of the domestic market. And both have the financial and intellectual capital to build genuine global airlines. These are mega-carriers in the making, with around 530 aircraft between them, and an order book of close to 970 (with more large orders expected to be placed in the near term).

By FY2030, which is only six years away, these two airlines are expected to have a combined fleet of 1100-1200 aircraft. CAPA India expects that by then, IndiGo is likely to operate close to 700 aircraft, making it India’s first mega-carrier. While Air India is expected to have a fleet of almost 500 aircraft. These two carriers will rank among the largest in the world. This will have significant and strategic implications for the sector.

1. What will the presence of two dominant carriers mean for industry competition, innovation, and profitability?
2. What will it mean for Air India and IndiGo in terms of access to people and infrastructure?
3. How well will these carriers be able to establish the organisation and governance structures required to operate at this scale?
4. As these mega-carriers grow, they will gain increasing strategic influence, and in due course strategic power. What will this mean for operators across the aviation value chain, especially for private airports?
5. The impact of the increased power of mega-carriers is first likely to be felt in the distribution space. Will this result in a greater focus on partnerships with the travel industry, especially with OTAs? Or is there likely to be a directional shift with a greater focus on direct distribution?
6. What will the need for in-house and partly-captive engineering and maintenance infrastructure mean for third party Indian MROs in the medium to long term?
7. What are the key systemic risks that are likely to emerge as a result of the presence of mega-carriers.
8. What are the first steps that policy-makers and regulators should take to prepare for this scenario?

To learn more about how the government and the industry need to start thinking from now about the deep market, sectoral and institutional impact of mega-carriers, join us for our next research briefing.

*Requests for registration must be made using your official email address.

*Submissions using generic addresses such as Gmail, Yahoo, Hotmail, etc. will not be processed. CAPA India reserves the right to accept or reject applications for this complimentary webinar.

For any assistance regarding participation, please contact:

CAPA India Marketing Karishma Sharma or Abhipsa Talwar marketing@capaindia.com +91 99999 74339, +91 98786 16161

This research briefing addressed questions such as:

Aviation policy, the associated regulatory framework and supporting institutional infrastructure (manpower, know-how, physical and digital), must be designed to be critical enablers of the sector, and in turn of the wider economy.

India is expected to be a USD20 trillion economy by the 2040s. And its aviation sector is likely to be at least five times larger than it is at present. Such a step-change in the scale of operations will requite a long-term policy that is dynamic, and aligned with the vision and ambitions of the Government of India. The process of designing this policy architecture must start from now.

For the last three years, CAPA Advisory has regularly advocated the need for an update to the National Civil Aviation Policy i.e. NCAP 2.0, to take into account 1) learnings from the pandemic and the realities of the post-COVID environment and 2) the strong projected growth in the coming decades.

In this briefing, we will present recommendations and a roadmap for a long-term aviation policy. Key points to be discussed will include:

Requests for registration must be made using your official email address. Submissions using generic addresses such as Gmail, Yahoo, Hotmail, etc. will not be processed. CAPA India reserves the right to accept or reject applications for this complimentary webinar.

For any assistance regarding participation, please contact:

CAPA India Marketing Karishma Sharma or Abhipsa Talwar marketing@capaindia.com +91 99999 74339, +91 98786 16161

CAPA India’s next research briefing will focus on another critical subject – ‘Airline Restructuring & Turnaround‘. We will present a best practice restructuring and turnaround framework which is designed to deliver enhanced results during, and post-implementation.

Our research, both in India and globally, indicates that most restructuring exercises fall significantly short of their intended goals, and fail to deliver consistent results, or the envisaged return on investment. In fact, many restructurings result in weakened financials and break the morale and confidence of the board and management to attempt subsequent corrections.And there are some airlines – mostly government-owned – which are in perpetual restructuring.

Outcomes are similar when it comes to turnaround (and here we define turnaround as ongoing implementation of, and adherence to the restructuring plan). With certain exceptions (which we will explore in more detail) carriers struggle to maintain the momentum required to genuinely turnaround. Goals are at times too short-term, driven by quarterly financial targets or the tenure of a CEO.

Restructuring and turnaround efforts are sometimes also driven around the personality of leaders, rather than being institutionalised. Our research briefing will dive into the reasons for why this is the case.

The result is that the majority of airlines, barring some of the larger operators, and smaller carriers that have carved out a clear niche, continue to struggle, but remain in business.

Key topics discussed included:

Key topics discussed included:

Do airlines measure their plans, and plan what they measure?

Key topics discussed included:

Key topics discussed during this webinar included:

Our previous research briefing presented our model for a Digital airline by design.

Key topics discussed included: